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"a fish, a barrel, and a smoking gun" |
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Not too long ago, journalists followed the money in their effort to expose corporate corruption and political malfeasance. Now they do it primarily in the hope of picking up the few stray dollars that new-economy tycoons haven't yet managed to stuff into their pockets. This, at least, was my conclusion last week after attending Online Journalism:
From the Medium to the Message a conference in which the panelists and attendees showed far more interest in stock options and news-driven e-commerce than in the more mundane concerns of computer-assisted research or online news corrections. The pecuniary preoccupations of online journalists are only natural: If you spend so much of your time writing about peach-fuzz millionaires and the world's most shocking price-earning ratios, it's all but impossible to avoid falling prey to the occasional flash of feverish money lust. "My job consists of taking billionaires to lunch and picking up the check," quipped one scribe at the conference. And while she went on to exclaim that she herself refrains from investing in any of the companies she covers, how many other journalists can boast such discipline? After underwriting Jeff Bezos' Caesar salad and Marc Andreessen's cheeseburgers, after seeing the effects and affectations of their wealth up close and personal, wouldn't you want to get in on the action too? Because pretty much every hungry cheapskate billionaire in the world correctly intuits that the typical Suck correspondent has no expense account to exploit, I've so far managed to remain fairly indifferent to the siren call of overnight wealth. And yet after a full day listening to blustery hornblowers tout their publications' imminent
IPOs that a site can indeed sell baby carriages without affecting its coverage of the best baby carriages to buy, and after realizing that the issue of news sites reporting on their parent corporations is actually such a nonissue now that no one even bothered to bring it up, I've decided that I too am ready to capitalize on the e-commerce bonanza.
My only concern: Am I too late to the party? After all, if Amazon.com is truly the cornerstone of the new-economy paradigm shift, then doom seems inevitable. Eventually, the people who've been buying all those books are going to log off and start reading them - and then what? Amazon's skyrocketing sales will slow to a halt as erstwhile Web surfers plod through all 742 pages of Amazon's top seller for 1998, Tom Wolfe's A Man in Full. Sites still hoping to make a go of it from banner ads alone will lose faith entirely and close up shop as their pageviews suddenly plummet. In a few short months, one imagines, the Web will return to the pre-Amazon days of 1994, when it was mostly the terrain of Finnish physicists and economically indifferent exhibitionists. Of course, that scenario presumes that people do actually plan to read the books they've ordered - and this may not be an accurate presumption. But whatever happens - even if Amazon's loyal, remarkably enthusiastic patrons continue to purchase books at a rate that makes actually reading them impossible, is this any guarantee that such behavior will inform other areas of e-commerce? In the real world, books are relatively hard to find: According to the 1992 Census of Retail Trade, there were only 12,887 bookstores in the United States, for an average of 1.71 bookstores for every 10,000 households. Now, thanks to Amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and their legions of affiliates, any one person has access to over 200,000 "bookstores." Suddenly, for the first time ever, books have become a true impulse buy. But what about products that one can actually purchase fairly easily in the real world, products that we've already been buying impulsively for decades? Will they have the same e-commerce upside that books have shown?
As far as I can tell, the best way to identify new-economy, get-rich schemes is to fully embrace the fun-house physics of an environment, which, as the recent eBay sale of a virtual US$136 million Hollywood Stock
Exchange US tender attests, can forge new currencies out of the ether and then alchemize them into cold, hard cash. In other words, the more preposterous the idea the better, which is why I've been thinking so much about Free-PC.com, the idealab brainchild that plans to give away 10,000 free Compaqs to consumers who agree to license their eyeballs to the company. While most of the media coverage regarding Free-PC.com has focused on the over 750,000 consumers who've handed over their demographic data to the company, I'm more interested in advertisers: Who exactly will want to advertise to Free-PC.com's audience? Certainly not any manufacturers of big-ticket items like computers or cars. These people have already shown they have little desire to spend their money on such products. On the other hand, Free-PC.com's self-identified skinflint demographic will no doubt appeal to deep discounters of small-ticket items like soda, potato chips, and beer. The challenge, of course, lies in maintaining the huge markdowns that would make e-shopping for goods that are readily available in the real world worth one's while. This can be achieved, I believe, through the extension of Free-PC.com's current business strategy: Along with free PCs, you must deliver free shipping to your customers, and as often as possible, additional free products as well.
How can this be accomplished? Through advertising, of course. At the moment, Amazon is failing to take advantage of one of its greatest assets - the new "package medium" it has created. Each day it ships out thousands of packages to its audience. And each one of them is a potential venue for multiple-advertising impressions. Indeed, if Round Table Pizza is currently polybagging Pacific Bell brochures onto its pizza boxes, why can't e-tailers do the same? When some enterprising online entrepreneur starts offering advertising-supported Budweiser and Pringles, you can be sure the growth of that market will dwarf even that of Amazon.com. Imagine the new world of e-commerce that will follow. It's a world where not just books but six packs of beer and rolls of toilet paper and even bottles of aspirin arrive at one's door in bulky, cardboard packages filled with various wasteful packing materials. The environmental consequences of such commerce will be devastating. This devastation, I believe, represents the next great e-commerce business opportunity. Whoever figures out how best to capitalize on it will make a fortune, and that's why I want to meet with all of the world's most visionary recycling entrepreneurs as soon as possible. Send me an email if you're out there. Lunch is on me!
courtesy of St. Huck |
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