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"a fish, a barrel, and a smoking gun" |
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No Guarantee of Future Results
So did you feel a chill as the big
day Probably not. Since the 10th anniversary of Black Monday happened to fall on a Sunday, we were mostly (but not entirely) spared a tremor in the stock market (though we did endure a small earthquake of thumb-sucking conniptions in the financial press). In fact, the New York Stock Exchange's "circuit breakers," which stop trading when the action gets too hot (sort of like a timeout for cigar aficionados) mean we'll never again see the likes of that October again.
But even if the bottom fell out, would you worry? After all, what do you care about a short-term loss? You're a long-term investor. You've got a diversified portfolio. You don't panic. You know your risk tolerance, and your disciplined, incremental investing plan lets you take advantage of dollar-cost-averaging. You view even a market downturn as a great buy opportunity. You know it's long-term performance that matters. Yeah, you and everybody else. We know the maxims of modern portfolio theory the way we know it's illegal to kill a praying mantis and Thomas Crapper invented the toilet. Do you know anybody who thinks it's good to put all their money in one stock? Try to time the market? Who would rather not optimize investments for long-term performance? Someone who wants to get out of stocks because they're "just too risky"? Has anyone you know invested all their money at once and hoped for the best? Put off planning for the future? You read about these nincompoops all the time, so they must exist.
I have a particular reason for hoping they exist, because it's my job to educate them. In my capacity as a professional financial pundit, I make a living assuming investors are too stupid to grasp a few basic
principles I recently received about writing some marketing text: "This is very high-level, but we want to make sure words like 'asset allocation,' 'optimization,' and 'modern
portfolio theory text, even if people don't immediately understand them." Not understand them? I should be so lucky! Or actually, it doesn't matter. If manna is really the American religion, then the story of personal finance is the rosary - your piety increases in direct proportion to the number of times you can repeat it without variation. More to the point - since telling the investor how the smart money spends its magazine sales - personal finance is the rock criticism of the '90s. You can only run so many photo spreads of fund-manager beefcake and retired couples in warmup suits, and, to fill up the hole where news should be, financial writers roll out the same can't-lose cant you'd expect to find in (the non-personal-finance sections of) Rolling Stone.
Rock and stock styles are coming together in more ways than one - Fidelity Investments house rag Worth has an odd-sized, alternaglossy heft, while Waters Information Service's operations trade magazine jazzes up the fast-paced world of T+3 settlement periods with Bikini-style anti-layout and Hard-2-Read fonts. If you're having trouble distinguishing financial writing from rock writing, here's the difference: Rock journalism: "Combining the hook-wary riffs of Meat Paddle with a Son of Spam-like willingness to experiment with oblique lyrics, since its last album J. J. Evans has honed a style like Pig Black on acid." Financial journalism: "Eschewing the risk-averse style of Witherspoon for a Michael Price-like willingness to take advantage of special situations, in the past two quarters the Zephyr fund has developed an investing style like Magellan on steroids." But at least rock criticism knows where it belongs - in the hands of contemptible interns and students who get paid little or nothing. Personal-finance palavators get almost as much attention as the bands they cover. Money pumps up the George Costanza-like good looks of ace reporter Michael Sivy in cover shots, ad inserts, and special feature photos. Fidelity's legendary Peter Lynch actually has a wonderful track record as a fund manager, but at his Worth gig he's a slightly dotty Mr. Chips - avuncular and wise, but a bit fusty for the all-bull future (he's so old he actually remembers the 1987 crash).
None of this would matter if the financial cognoscenti didn't seem to talk out both sides of their balance sheets. When Magellan fund manager Jeff Vinik suffered a couple bad months, the Brahmins at Fidelity decided to dump long-term performance concerns - and Vinik - into the Charles. Nothing provides more fodder for financial "news" coverage than breathless gossip about which fund managers have begun taking large bond positions and whether that means we're headed for a new recession. And, in fact, if the market is so efficient and long-haul investing is so important, why do the pronouncements of pissy
analysts over the map? The dissonance between what the riffraff understands as good investing principles and how the financial industry actually conducts its business is something that few people, other than professional curmudgeons like Frank Armstrong, have noted. Financial planning is now the second highest-paid financial profession. But where traditional financial companies got by providing dubious service to bumpkins, the online investing boondoggle makes it possible for countless mushroom
millionaires less service to the Web's clueless masses. Even William Sharpe, a Nobel-winning financial economist and a man who should know better, is trying to get into the act, though his Financial Engines venture seems to be having trouble getting out of the starting gate. As the indistinguishable risk
tolerance you spend a US$5,000 windfall on 5,000 lottery tickets?") and "AI" asset allocation programs ("Here is your personalized investment advice") pile up, you begin to understand why mass customization is so cheap.
But digital advice is just the financial planning industry writ small. In the investing world, you get what you pay for - and often you get even less. Except at my company, that is. If you think you should keep putting off planning for the future because it's "just too complicated," come see us. After all, it's your money. courtesy of La Vache Qui Rit |
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