"a fish, a barrel, and a smoking gun" |
Murky Brown
If information is power, then the current wave of bullshit could appropriately be termed a "brownout."
The subtlety of this axiom wasn't lost on Wall Street speculators this week, who responded to the Internet players' PR speed chess match with a bullish stance on AOL and a bearish take on Netscape - proof positive that it pays big to be fooled, as long as you're prepared to be fooled again and again, as often as possible. Assuming relevance goes hand-in-hand with popularity, those who studied NPD Research's PC-Meter stats on Web usage, released this week, would conclude that late-breaking news has little value at all.
Working from an anemic sample of 1000 home users, NPD Research shouldn't have been surprised that its client-side tracking software reported that the most visited sites on the Web were the default home pages assigned by the current batch of online services. And if the boneheads at NPD listed mcom.com (Mosaic Communications, or pre-settlement Netscape, which ranked 13th in the lineup) and netscape.com (which ranked third) separately, who's to complain? In the study, news sites, with a 6 percent share, trailed far behind every other category, including educational, "adult" (which we like to think of as "educational"), and even government sites. Curiously, the "news" that aol.com was the most visited site on the Web was revisited quite a few times in NPD's study and press releases. It may be the fate of would-be information and questionable statistics to be of more and more value to fewer and fewer people. Of course, the real winners of this infotainment lottery was NPD, whose press release also performed the neat trick of auto-stimulation by noting that the company's quarterly reports are available for the modest sum of $50K (with an additional $125K throwing consultation into the bargain). Still, given the tenor of the times, such data only served as a bolstering footnote to AOL's week-long promotional bowel movement, a series of non-events which the business press, not unsurprisingly, covered like flies. AOL, voted "Most Popular by the Web," jilts Netscape for Microsoft! AOL licenses Java! AOL commences talks with AT&T! If Michael Ovitz were involved, we'd half-expect an HBO original
movie
It only makes sense that AOL, the reigning champion of charging phenomenally for what is otherwise available for free, would turn playing coy into a cacophony. But, while Ted
Leonsis lectures on the sophistication of "disaggregation," Bill Gates puts the principle into practice, cementing the success of Microsoft in the browser market by giving MSIE to AOL, Netcom, and CompuServe, while apparently offering little more in return than a slot on the long menu of online services in Son of Windows 95.
AOL bigwigs may not have "been taking stupid pills," but someone obviously slipped them some Spanish Fly - what else could explain the gang-bang merger orgy in which everyone who played got the short end of a very big stick? But their pain is nothing compared to Netscape's - Netscape loved AOL until AOL, who hated Microsoft, leveraged Microsoft's greater hate for Netscape to their advantage. Now Netscape's just
hatin' Naturally, the news of these murky deals has a greater impact than their far-off realities. All the companies involved are hungry, and the money flows when investors see what they're hungry for, regardless of whether any of them will ever get it. Fully aware that contempt is a small price to pay for familiarity, what everyone wants is that all-important first hit - the desktop icon which gives the soon-to-be-familiar Internet dial tone.
Meanwhile, Clark ponders, Leonsis panders, Gates plunders, and the rest of us are left scratching our heads. The future? Armchair investing replaces the state lottery, as the news - faster, better, and more illusory - gets spun out of control. We see a 6 percent share. We see the finest bullshit money can buy. courtesy of the Duke of URL
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